What to Know About Why Climate Scientists Are Pushing for a New Hurricane Category
Climate scientists are advocating for the addition of a new hurricane category, Category 6, as climate change amplifies the intensity of storms, challenging the existing Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. In a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers Michael F. Wehner and James P. Kossin argue that the current scale, developed in the 1970s, is inadequate in reflecting the true intensity of storms as global warming progresses.
“Our motivation is to reconsider how the open-endedness of the Saffir-Simpson Scale can lead to underestimation of risk, and, in particular, how this underestimation becomes increasingly problematic in a warming world,” Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, said.
The proposal suggests that Category 6 designation should be applied to storms with wind speeds exceeding 192 mph. Currently, storms with wind speeds of 157 mph or higher fall under Category 5, a classification that the study deems insufficient in warning people about the hazards of higher wind speeds. The researchers believe that the open-ended nature of the current scale may lead people to underestimate the risks associated with some hurricanes, a concern that becomes increasingly significant in a warming world.
The study points out that several recent storms have already achieved the hypothetical Category 6 intensity. With multiple lines of evidence indicating the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, the researchers project the occurrence of more storms of this intensity as the climate continues to warm. Since 2013, five hurricanes in the Pacific have reached wind speeds of 192 mph or higher, and the warming conditions are expected to bring even stronger storms.
“We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm,” the study stated.
Climate change is identified as a factor exacerbating the impact of severe storms. While some experts argue against the need for an additional category, stating that it could provide a misleading impression based solely on wind speed and not the deadliest element of hurricanes, others emphasize that climate change intensifies storms and increases the proportion that qualify as major hurricanes.
While no Atlantic storm has reached the 192 mph threshold, the researchers believe that ongoing global warming raises the probability of such events in the future. It's noted that the focus should be on individual hazards like storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and rip currents, rather than emphasizing a particular category of the storm.
